Brocker.Org: What are the prospects of Clive Lewis changing Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader?

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Clive
Lewis

Carl Court /
Getty


  • Essential Corbyn ally resigns from shadow
    cabinet
  • Will become bookies’ favourite to switch Corbyn
  • He is seen with rising distrust by Labour
    leader’s staff
  • Labour leadership election regulations hinder his
    prospects

 

LONDON — Clive Lewis’ resignation
from the shadow cabinet
 this week is already remaining taken
by quite a few supporters of Jeremy Corbyn as the to start with move in a
leadership obstacle in opposition to him.

Soon right after his resignation, Lewis grew to become the bookies
favourite to switch Corbyn, leapfrogging the previous favourite
Keir Starmer.

Lewis evidently does have leadership ambitions and he may perhaps effectively use
his newfound flexibility on the backbenches to publicly criticise the
Labour leader.

On the other hand, an outright obstacle in opposition to Corbyn is unlikely in the
immediate future for a number of motives.

It truly is too early

Corbyn was elected for a 2nd time as Labour leader fewer than
six months in the past. In spite of prevalent and escalating disillusionment
among quite a few of his supporters above his position on Brexit, there
is very little appetite for yet one more leadership election any time
soon. Past year’s botched obstacle in opposition to him in fact
strengthened his position among Labour bash associates, quite a few of
whom observed it as an tried coup by the appropriate-wing of the bash.
There is each chance that a further challenge now, even
from the remaining, would just do the very same once again.

Lewis would struggle to get on the ballot

Beneath recent Labour Occasion regulations, MPs will need the assist of twenty% of
MPs and MEPs in buy to make it onto the ballot for any
leadership election. While Lewis would secure the assist of a
number of MPs on the comfortable-remaining of the bash, remaining-wing
parliamentarians would split among Lewis and whoever is
Corbyn’s picked successor.

Right now, that looks to be shadow chief secretary to the
Treasury, Rebecca Extended-Bailey. Lewis, even though an ally of Corbyn,
has more and more been seen with distrust by all those all over the
Labour leader. His resignation last evening will only have
amplified that.

Lewis’s best chance of successful an election will therefore only
occur if there is a adjust to the threshold for Labour MPs to
stand on the ballot. There are proposals to do just that, but
they will not be voted on till the following Labour convention in the
Autumn. Corbyn’s critics in the bash have told Company Insider
that they are confident that these kinds of a adjust will not be denied by
convention and Labour’s ruling system, the NEC.

On the other hand, till the threshold is reduced, Lewis’s prospects of
getting on to the ballot stay slender.

The takeover of the Labour bash is not entire

Corbyn under no circumstances desired to be leader. He was persuaded to stand in
2015 simply since nobody else from his wing of the bash desired
to do it. Once nominated, Corbyn under no circumstances anticipated to get, with most
of his staff believing that a 3rd spot end result for the remaining-wing
applicant would stand for be a big success and a symbolic
victory, significantly if he been given additional votes than a applicant
from the appropriate of the bash.

His subsequent overpowering victory was as large a surprise to
Corbyn as it was to the rest of the state.

When Corbyn was challenged for the task a yr afterwards, his original
instinct was to stand down. He was persuaded in opposition to executing so by
equally John McDonnell and Unite leader Len McCluskey. Their
argument and the argument of Corbyn’s wider circle is that the
Labour leader should entire the remaining-wing takeover of the bash
infrastructure before standing down. That usually means a takeover equally
of the party’s HQ, the team of which are seen with suspicion
by Corbyn’s staff and the NEC. The NEC at this time has an
anti-Corbyn the vast majority and that is unlikely to adjust at any time soon.

An orderly succession

Lewis does have quite a few pros. He is an impressive speaker, has
a persuasive back again story as a previous soldier and has the assist
of quite a few major remaining-wing commentators. Much more importantly, if
Brexit goes badly, as quite a few Labour MPs think it will, then his
vote last evening will place him in a good position with Labour’s
mostly Continue being-Supporting activists. He will be observed as remaining on
the “appropriate side” of the Brexit argument.

On the other hand, in buy to get onto the ballot, Lewis must wait
till Corbyn is possibly defeated at the ballot box or decides to
stand down of his have totally free will.

In the meantime  Lewis has a ton of function to do to get above
his fellow MPs, some of whom have privately clashed with him in
the earlier. There is a feasible route to electric power for
Lewis but it is not a straightforward one particular. On the other hand, if he
manages to locate it, then he will be in a good position to
get above equally his bash and the wider state.

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