Brocker.Org: Op-Ed: Trump like Kennedy? Why market comparisons to 1962 are spooky


Sandler O’Neill analysts just set out an amazing statistic in a be aware to consumers:

“In 1Q17-to-date, understood volatility of the S&P 500 (calculated as: (intraday high – intraday small) / ((the intraday high + intraday small) / two))) has averaged 5.37, the least expensive quarterly stage considering the fact that 1962.”

The news that the marketplaces are submitting their least expensive volatility figures considering the fact that 1962 is substantial ample. But there’s something about that precise yr, and the nuts items that took place in between Wall Road and Washington in 1962, that really should definitely established off some alarm bells.

On paper, 1962 really should have been a roaring complete-yr rally for shares. The U.S. GDP averaged eight percent development, yes eight percent, for most of the yr. The nation was right in the middle of the peaceful period of time in in between the Korean and Vietnam wars. And complex developments thanks to the burgeoning place application have been becoming much more evident in corporate The us.

But inspite of that 1 quarter of report-small volatility, Wall Road truly put in virtually all of 1962 in freefall. The market-off commenced in late 1961, but it picked up downward steam in the new yr. And then President John F. Kennedy did something that designed items substantially even worse: He spooked the Road with an out-of-character tantrum against 1 of America’s biggest businesses.