Brocker.Org: CME Group FedWatch: Market expectations for a June rate hike at 63.1%


CME Group FedWatch tool, which calculates unconditional probabilities of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcomes to generate a binary probability tree, shows the probability of a rate hike in June fell to 63.1% from 67.6% (yesterday) on the last trading day of April amid dismal macroeconomic data from the US. 

Today’s data showed that the U.S. economy grew at its weakest pace since 2014, with the real GDP increasing at a 0.7% annual rate in the first quarter of 2017. The main drag on the growth rate seems to be the weak consumer spending accompanied by higher imports and downturns in private inventory investment.

Despite today’s drop, CME Group FedWatch tool suggests that markets are still expectant of a June rate hike.