Brocker.Org: NZD/USD awaiting a catalyst, but maybe this week’s RBNZ could trigger a move?


Currently, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6912, up 0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.6921 and low at 0.6906.

NZD/USD is subdued in a market lacking impetus now that the political risks in the EZ have been abated, for now, by the confirmation of a Centralist running the show in France as a second pillar supporting the EU project. The risk mood is less than on, but certainly not off and the bird is able to consolidate around the 200 sma on the 1hr sticks for now awaiting a catalyst from the Central Bank outlook.

For the meantime, analysts at Westpac explained that the bird remains relatively well supported in a fairly neutral 0.6850-0.6950 range. “US dollar’s recent softness plus a potentially upbeat RBNZ on Thursday are supportive factors.”

NZD/USD 1-3 month:  

The same analysts explained that the Fed’s tightening cycle plus US fiscal expansion should maintain upside pressure on US interest rates and the US dollar, pushing NZD/USD below 0.6700 in the medium term. “However, local factors are supportive: a strong NZ economy, higher dairy prices, and an RBNZ which has finally met its inflation target.”

NZD/USD levels

0.6920/30 is the immediate resistance area still and ahead of psychological 0.70 level. The 17th April highs of 0.7035 are next up ahead of 0.7060/70, being a further key resistance area through the 200-d ema (0.7047). The double bottom at 0.7130 as the mid-Feb lows could be a strong area of resistance  To the downside, the 0.6900 level is first support and today’s lows at 0.6896 before 0.6850/60. Next key support below 0.6700 is down to 0.6675 as the 29th May 2016 high.