The bid tone around NZD strengthened, pushing the NZD/USD pair 0.20% higher at 0.6868 this Monday morning after New Zealand reported a better-than-expected retail sales figure.
Car sales fuelled the rise in retail sales
Car sales jumped 5.9% in the first quarter. That pushed the headline figure to a seasonally adjusted 1.5 percent in the three months to the end of March. The actual print was well above the analysts’ expectation of 0.9%. Ex-Autos jumped to 1.2% from the previous figure of 0.6%.
Eyes McDermott speech
Assistant Governor and Head of Economics John McDermott will deliver a speech today titled “The Value of Forecasting in an Uncertain World”. The speech text and a news release will be published at 5.00pm NZDT. The comments on inflation and interest rate hike could move the NZD pairs. The interest rate markets are priced for a hike by mid-2018.
Confluence of support at 0.6808 – monthly 200-MA + upward sloping trendline from Aug 2015 low and Jan 2016 low. Two consecutive daily close below the same would open up downside towards 0.6760 (June 2016 low) and 0.6675 (May 2016 low).
On the higher side, a convincing break above 0.6862 (Dec 2016 low) could yield 0.6926 (May 11 high) and 0.6962 (50-DMA).