Currently, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6881, up 0.07% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.6885 and low at 0.6872.
NZD/USD is slightly bid in a quiet session so far in early Asia with the release of the trade balance. Meanwhile, from the US session, the bird was down by -0.1% within a range of 0.6848-0.6921 at 0.6883 up to the close. The US data was mixed with durable goods orders that rose 0.7% in March (vs 1.3% expected), with ex-transport orders falling 0.2% – the first decline since June 2016. Wholesale inventories fell 0.1% (vs +0.2% expected).
Analysts at Westpac noted that the kiwi was breaking lower and targeting the 0.6800 area next. The US Administration’s trade protectionist policies are weighing.
NZD/USD 1-3 month:
The analysts at Westpac expect that the Fed’s tightening cycle plus US fiscal expansion should maintain upside pressure on US interest rates and the US dollar, pushing NZD/USD down towards 0.6900. “The RBNZ’s persistent reminders it is on hold for a long time should also weigh.”
NZD/USD has broken the critical support level at 0.6933/50 and has challenged the support of the 0.6885 mark down to 0.6841 as being the recent previous low as of the European session. Next support is down to 0.6675 as the 29th May 2016 high on a break of the 0.67 handle. On the flip side, a run back on t the 0.70 handle, the previous bulls have the 17th April highs of 0.7035 is sight protecting 0.7060/70 and recent high today around the 200-d ema (0.7067). There is a double bottom at 0.7130 as the mid-Feb lows.