Brocker.Org: US economy is “now at full employment” – Goldman Sachs


Economists at Goldman Sachs published a latest report on the US labor market over the weekend, as we head towards the US payrolls data due this Friday.

Key Points:

On a broad range of measures, the US economy is now at full employment

Headline unemployment has fallen below most estimates of the structural rate

The discouraged worker share is back to pre-recession lows

Still somewhat elevated share of involuntary part-timers is arguably structural

The employment/population ratio remains well below its pre-recession level

(this) gap is fully explained by a combination of population aging and declining participation of prime-age men

This trend among prime-age men has continued for over six decades, has not stood in the way of a strong recent wage acceleration in that demographic, and therefore looks structural

Job growth remains well above the pace needed to stabilize unemployment

The speed of the likely overshoot is comparable to the average postwar cycle

We have lowered our end-2018 unemployment rate forecast to 4.1% from 4.3% prior