Analysts at Danske Bank suggests that today brings US GDP figures for Q1 in addition to the PCE core inflation figures for Q1 in US which are going to be the most important economic releases for the day.
“The Fed Atlanta GDP nowcast shows growth in Q1 of 0.5% q/q AR, soft data indicates growth in the region of 1.5-2.0%. We expect to land somewhere in between and forecast GDP growth of 1.0% q/q AR in Q1.”
“We will also get PCE core inflation for Q1. If the current trend in monthly PCE core increases continues (implying increases of around 0.1% m/m), PCE core inflation would come in at 2.2% q/q AR. However, note that although this may give the impression that inflation has reached its target, the Fed is more concerned about PCE core inflation y/y, which will be significantly below 2% almost no matter what the March print comes in at.”